statewide · 2026-09-25
mnFISHON Conditions — Sep 25–29, 2026 (Fri–Tue)
Source: NWS Twin Cities / NWS Duluth
Public NWS/NOAA cues only. No lake temps claimed.
Alright Minnesota. The drip-and-dry pattern gets one more lap this weekend. Then it looks like early next week the sky finally commits to something. Friday’s a mild one once the fog clears. Saturday brings light showers. Sunday and Monday are the easygoing middle. Monday night into Tuesday is when NWS Duluth starts saying “widespread soaking” out loud. It’s still not a flood or severe chapter, but it’s the biggest rain story on the board in a while.
Friday (Sep 25): foggy start, mild finish
- Dense Fog Advisory around the Twin Ports (Carlton/South St. Louis, Douglas WI) ran until 8 AM CDT. Visibility was very poor along the St. Louis River valley and Thompson Hill. It’s expired, but if you left early you drove through it. Fog may come back tonight in light winds.
- Stratus burns off to filtered sun or mostly sunny skies. Highs mid/upper 60s to near 70: MSP ~68, Rochester ~68, Brainerd ~67, Duluth ~67.
- Dry statewide, light SE winds. Probably the easiest day on this card to get a boat out.
Saturday (Sep 26): light showers, west/central favored
Twin Cities AFD (557 AM CDT Fri): a moisture plume (PWATs 150–200% of normal) brings scattered to widespread showers. They’re most widespread in western MN, with less coverage east.
- Amounts: 0.25–0.50” western MN, under 0.25” eastern MN / western WI. A rumble of thunder is possible out west.
- Duluth AFD: Northland showers mostly afternoon and night, best in central / north-central MN, generally under a tenth.
- Highs slip to low/mid 60s under clouds (MSP ~64, Brainerd ~62, Duluth ~63). SE winds pick up to 10–15 mph in spots.
- Point PoPs are ~60–70% Sat afternoon/night for MSP, Brainerd, and Duluth. Not a washout, but bring the rain jacket.
Sunday–Monday (Sep 27–28): the quiet middle
- Sunday: showers taper early (lingering longer toward MSP and Rochester in the morning), then clouds break and it’s dry and mild. Highs upper 60s (Brainerd ~69, MSP ~68).
- Monday: south/southeast flow, highs around 70 areawide (MSP ~70, Rochester ~69, Duluth ~66), and more humid, with dewpoints near 60. Dry through the daytime. Good day to fish ahead of the change.
Monday night–Tuesday (Sep 28–29): the real rain story
What’s new since the last card: the Mon night/Tue boundary has firmed up from “uncertain” to likely widespread rain.
- NWS Duluth AFD: “most of the models” bring a widespread, soaking rainfall across the Northland Monday night through Tuesday night. Moisture surging north may have a tropical connection (remnant moisture from Polo or Odalys). Possible rumbles of thunder Monday night. Showers wind down Wednesday.
- NWS Twin Cities AFD: widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms Tuesday. Guidance gives a >50% chance of more than 0.10” areawide, but only 20–40% for more than 0.50”. MPX says forecaster confidence in exact totals is low.
- Point PoPs Tue / Tue night are ~65–75% (MSP, Rochester, Duluth, Brainerd). Brainerd’s rain may start earlier, Monday night.
- HWO MPX / DLH: still no hazardous weather expected. No severe or flood headlines. Treat totals as a range, not a promise.
- Behind it, winds turn west/northwest and it’s cooler midweek, highs in the low/mid 60s (DLH).
Angler read: plan the weekend and Monday as the fishable window. Tuesday looks like the soggy, thundery one. If you’re on open water Monday night or Tuesday, keep an eye out for lightning.
Lake Superior (nearshore)
No marine headlines in effect this morning (api.weather.gov: none for western Superior nearshore). Friday is quiet: light winds and waves 1 ft or less, with some fog early.
- Saturday: NE winds 10–15 kt, gusts to 20 kt, waves 1–3 ft. HWO DLH flags rip-current risk at Twin Ports beaches Saturday afternoon/evening.
- Monday afternoon/evening: another Twin Ports rip-current risk in the HWO.
- Tuesday–Thursday: HWO DLH calls for strong gusty winds that could get hazardous, and says Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Nothing’s issued yet. Check before you launch midweek.
Angler cheat sheet (Fri–Tue)
| Cue | Status |
|---|---|
| Fri | Fog early (Twin Ports advisory expired 8 AM), then mild and dry, upper 60s to ~70 |
| Sat | Showers, best west/central; 0.25–0.5” west, lighter east |
| Sun–Mon | Mostly dry, mild, upper 60s to ~70 |
| Mon night–Tue | Widespread soaking rain + some thunder likely; totals uncertain |
| Frost | None in sight; cooler midweek, but no freeze talk |
| Superior | Rip risk Twin Ports Sat and Mon afternoons; possible SCA Tue–Thu |
| Flood / severe | None expected (HWOs clear) |
No lake water temperatures, ice-out, stocking, or bite claims in this digest. We didn’t find solid public numbers for those, so we’re not inventing any.
Sources: NWS Twin Cities AFD (557 AM CDT Fri Sep 25), HWO (328 AM CDT); NWS Duluth AFD (618 AM CDT, update 334 AM), HWO (358 AM CDT); api.weather.gov active alerts (MN + western Superior nearshore); NWS point forecasts MSP / Duluth / Rochester / Brainerd (morning Fri). Forecasts change, so check weather.gov before you launch.