statewide · 2026-09-28
mnFISHON Conditions — Sep 28–Oct 2, 2026 (Mon–Fri)
Source: NWS Twin Cities / NWS Duluth
Public NWS/NOAA cues only. No lake temps claimed.
Look, Minnesota. This week has a plot. It opens foggy and warm, slides into a two-day rain loaded so heavy it barely has the energy to thunder, then a cold front shows up Wednesday night and takes the heater away. By Friday morning the Northland is back to frost talk. Five days, three seasons. Up north math.
Monday (Sep 28): pea-soup start, warm finish
The morning fog was the real deal. Dense Fog Advisories covered a big chunk of central, southern and east-central MN (Twin Cities metro included) plus northwest Wisconsin and Pine County, mostly until 10 AM CDT. Parts of the Apostle Islands waters are under a marine Dense Fog Advisory until noon. Twin Cities NWS says the weak late-September sun is slow to burn it off, which, honestly, relatable.
Once it lifts: warm. Highs upper 60s to low 70s (MSP ~72, Rochester ~71, Brainerd ~69, Duluth ~66), with pockets of NW Wisconsin pushing the upper 70s. Light S/SE winds. This is your dry, fishable day. Use it.
Tonight a band of heavier rain sets up over north-central MN. NWS Duluth highlights NW Itasca and western Koochiching for up to about an inch, with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
Tuesday–Wednesday (Sep 29–30): the soaker, heaviest south
This part changed the most since Friday’s card, which said “widespread soaking, totals uncertain.” The totals are still moving, but the trend is wetter and farther north, with a real flooding flag now in play.
- Twin Cities AFD (628 AM CDT Mon): rain spreads in overnight into Tuesday and reaches eastern MN by late morning to early afternoon. A strong Canadian low then spins up Tuesday night into Wednesday and the boundary stalls over south/southeast MN, which could mean training showers. Model blend (NBM) totals are 2+ inches for southern/southeast MN and western WI, and most of the MPX area gets at least a half inch, least in western MN. MPX flags these as numbers that “change with each package.” Watch the trend, not the decimal.
- HWO MPX (303 AM CDT): localized flooding possible Wednesday/Thursday, favoring southern Minnesota. No Flood Watch is issued as of this morning. Low-lying ramps, creek mouths and gravel access roads in the south deserve respect midweek.
- Thunder: MPX calls the atmosphere “rain loaded” rather than convective, so a few rumbles are possible but lightning may be limited. NWS Duluth’s outlook says storms could happen Tuesday, with occasional cloud-to-ground lightning as the main threat. No severe headlines. On open water, a few rumbles still means off the water.
- Northland: the Tuesday rain fades and shifts southeast, then a second heavier round hits NW Wisconsin Tuesday evening/night with ½–¾”. Wednesday is one more warm day up north with scattered showers, mainly NW Wisconsin.
- Point PoPs: MSP ~75% Tue/Tue night and ~65% Wed; Rochester 80–85% Tue night through Wed night, with more showers possible into Thursday; Brainerd ~83% Tue, drier Wed; Duluth ~79% Tue.
- Highs stay mild in the upper 60s to low 70s, humid-feeling. This is the warm-rain chapter, not the cold-rain chapter. That comes next.
Thursday–Friday (Oct 1–2): front passes, frost comes back
A potent cold front crosses Wednesday night. NWS Duluth calls it a pattern change, and they aren’t wrong.
- Thursday: gusty northwest winds, and highs drop 10–15 degrees from Wednesday. Duluth ~61, Brainerd ~61, MSP ~65. Southern MN may still see leftover showers early (Rochester ~50%).
- Thursday night into Friday morning: strong high pressure, clearing skies and light winds set up the next widespread frost and freeze potential in the Northland. NWS Duluth says frost or freeze headlines are likely for Thursday night into Friday morning, and frost stays a concern on nights into the weekend. Point lows: Brainerd ~41, Duluth / Rochester ~45, MSP ~48. Inland low spots will run colder than those city numbers.
- Friday: sunny and crisp, highs near 60 up north (Duluth ~60, Brainerd ~61), low/mid 60s south. Bluebird look, but a boat-launch-with-gloves kind of bluebird.
- Beyond: MPX sees no significant rain after this system into next weekend, highs in the 60s and lows upper 40s to low 50s. Duluth mentions a weak system with light showers Saturday night.
Covering the tomatoes is back on the chore list up north.
Lake Superior (nearshore)
No Small Craft Advisories, gales or Beach Hazards are issued yet. Right now it’s fog: marine Dense Fog Advisory until noon for Port Wing through the Apostles and Oak Point–Saxon Harbor.
- Tuesday afternoon/evening: gusty south winds, gusts near 25 kt near and offshore of Grand Portage and along the South Shore. HWO DLH says small craft conditions may turn hazardous.
- Thursday: winds turn northwest and strengthen considerably behind the front.
- Friday through Sunday: HWO DLH says hazardous conditions could come back each day, with SCAs possibly needed daily.
The Twin Ports rip chapter from last week has gone quiet in this morning’s products. Now the wind story is the North Shore and South Shore.
Angler cheat sheet (Mon–Fri)
| Cue | Status |
|---|---|
| Mon | Dense fog until ~10 AM, then warm, upper 60s–low 70s; best dry day |
| Mon night | Heavier rain north-central MN (NW Itasca / W Koochiching up to ~1”) |
| Tue–Wed | Widespread rain, some thunder; heaviest south/SE MN + W WI, 2”+ possible |
| Flooding | Localized flooding possible Wed/Thu, southern MN (HWO); no watch yet |
| Thu | Cold front passed; gusty NW winds; highs down 10–15° |
| Thu night–Fri AM | Frost/freeze headlines likely Northland; frost risk into weekend |
| Superior | Possible SCA Tue (Grand Portage / South Shore); NW winds Thu; SCAs possible Fri–Sun |
No lake water temperatures, ice, stocking or bite claims in this digest. We didn’t find solid public numbers for those, so we’re not inventing any. Anyway: fish Monday, respect Wednesday, and bring the real gloves Friday. The water will still be there when the front clears out.
Sources: NWS Twin Cities AFD (628 AM CDT Mon Sep 28) and HWO (303 AM CDT); NWS Duluth AFD (624 AM CDT) and HWO (1246 AM CDT, incl. marine); api.weather.gov active alerts (MN + western Superior nearshore, ~9:30 AM CDT); NWS point forecasts for MSP, Duluth, Rochester and Brainerd (Mon morning). Forecasts change, so check weather.gov before you launch.