statewide · 2026-09-29
mnFISHON Conditions — Sep 29–Oct 3, 2026 (Tue–Sat)
Source: NWS Twin Cities / NWS Duluth
Public NWS/NOAA cues only. No lake temps claimed.
Look, Minnesota. Yesterday’s soaker script got rewritten overnight, and honestly? The rewrite is kinder. Still rain today. Still a cold slap Thursday. But the “2+ inches and localized flooding” chapter from Monday’s card? Softened. Southern MN tops out around an inch through Wednesday. The Northland gets a tenth to a half and then it’s done early tonight. Progress, of a soggy sort.
Tuesday (Sep 29): rain day, west to east
Showers are already chewing through western and north-central Minnesota this morning and will keep sliding east. Twin Cities NWS (AFD 554 AM CDT Tue): amounts around a quarter to half inch where rain arrives early in the west, closer to a half inch for eastern MN including the metro, and the highest totals — around an inch — settle over southern Minnesota through Wednesday as the boundary stalls near I-90 / northern Iowa into SE MN. Rumbles of thunder are possible. Not a severe day.
NWS Duluth (AFD 611 AM CDT Tue): Northland gets a tenth to a half-inch today, then the band exits inland northwest Wisconsin early tonight. Wednesday’s second rain round has trended down hard — what looked like two events is mostly just today’s.
Point forecasts (morning Tue): MSP PoP ~98% / high ~66; Rochester ~91% / ~69; Brainerd ~75% / ~64; Duluth ~77% / ~64. South/southwest winds gusty toward 20 kt in spots.
Fog watch tonight: MPX aviation notes another widespread fog event looking more likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Duluth is watching Dense Fog Advisory needs too. If you launch early Wed, crawl to the ramp.
Wednesday (Sep 30): warm, mostly dry
Once today’s rain clears, Wednesday is the last warm one. Highs low to mid 70s (MSP ~74, Brainerd ~74, Duluth ~73, Rochester ~72), with a few NW Wisconsin spots brushing the upper 70s. Spotty light leftover showers possible inland NW Wisconsin / far southern MN (Rochester PoP still ~35–40%). Mostly a fishable day if you can see through the morning fog.
Thursday–Saturday (Oct 1–3): front, breeze, frost
Cold front early Thursday morning. Highs drop 10–15 degrees from Wednesday. Breezy northwest winds, gusts 20–30 mph (Duluth AFD). Highs back in the low/mid 60s (MSP ~66, Duluth / Brainerd ~63).
Then the crisp chapter returns up north:
- NWS Duluth: frost and freezing lows expected starting Thursday night and lasting into the weekend. Frost/freeze headlines are very likely Thursday night, and maybe each night into the weekend for at least parts of the Northland. Point lows Thu night: Brainerd ~40, Duluth ~41.
- Twin Cities CWA: MPX says lows drop into the 40s by early next week, but not enough for frost in their area just yet. Different zip codes, different tomato fate.
Friday: sunny and dry, highs near 60 up north, low/mid 60s south. Saturday: mostly quiet; Duluth notes a quick shortwave with scattered light showers Saturday daytime, then dry again. No significant rain for the first week of October in the MPX story.
Flood / watches / thunder
- MPX HWO (304 AM CDT Tue): no hazardous weather Day 1 or Days 2–7. Monday’s “localized flooding possible Wed/Thu southern MN” language is gone. Training along the stalling boundary is still the wettest axis, but NBM has toned QPF down and favors the heaviest amounts just south of the MPX area.
- No Flood Watch in effect (api.weather.gov, ~9:28 AM CDT Tue). No Beach Hazards. No fog advisories active statewide at scout time (one Special Weather Statement for fog in the far NW Red River valley from Grand Forks — outside the main MN Fish On beat).
- Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible today (HWO DLH); occasional cloud-to-ground lightning is the main threat. Off the water if you hear it.
Lake Superior (nearshore)
Small Craft Advisory in effect 10 AM–10 PM CDT Tuesday for Grand Portage to Grand Marais (LSZ140) — southwest winds 10–15 kt, gusts up to 25 kt, waves 2–3 ft. This is the new issued alert; Monday’s card only had it as a maybe.
HWO DLH: additional SCAs may be needed for the South Shore today, and again Thursday when winds turn northwest and strengthen (gusts up to ~30 kt along the North Shore possible Wed night into Thu per AFD marine). Twin Ports beach/rip language is quiet this morning.
Angler cheat sheet (Tue–Sat)
| Cue | Status |
|---|---|
| Tue rain | West→east; west ¼–½”, metro ~½”, south MN through Wed ~1” |
| Northland rain | Ends early tonight; Wed round faded |
| Flooding | MPX HWO clear — no flood flag; no Flood Watch |
| Wed | Warm low/mid 70s; morning fog possible; mostly dry |
| Thu | Cold front; gusty NW 20–30 mph; highs down 10–15° |
| Frost | Likely Northland Thu night into weekend; MPX CWA too warm for frost yet |
| Superior | SCA Grand Portage–Grand Marais 10 AM–10 PM Tue; more SCAs possible South Shore today and Thu |
No lake water temperatures, ice, stocking or bite claims in this digest. We didn’t find solid public numbers for those, so we’re not inventing any. Anyway: wet boots today, warm Wednesday if the fog lets you, and the real gloves Thursday night up north. The water will still be there when the high sets in.
Sources: NWS Twin Cities AFD (554 AM CDT Tue Sep 29) and HWO (304 AM CDT); NWS Duluth AFD (611 AM CDT) and HWO (1249 AM CDT, incl. marine); api.weather.gov active alerts (MN + western Superior nearshore, ~9:28 AM CDT Tue) — SCA LSZ140 confirmed; NWS point forecasts MSP / Duluth / Rochester / Brainerd (Tue morning). Forecasts change — check weather.gov before you launch.