statewide · 2026-10-01
mnFISHON Conditions — Oct 1–5, 2026 (Thu–Mon)
Source: NWS Twin Cities / NWS Duluth
Public NWS/NOAA cues only. No lake temps claimed.
Alright Minnesota — the warm-Wednesday chapter closed the door behind it. Thursday woke up to northwest wind and the kind of dry air that makes your truck smell like October. The frost talk from earlier this week? It’s not talk anymore. Headlines are up. Cover the tomatoes up north, and if you’re launching on Superior this afternoon, the Small Craft Advisories are real this time.
Thursday (Oct 1): front passed, breezy and seasonable
Cold front dropped southeast through the Northland early this morning. Twin Cities NWS (AFD 555 AM CDT Thu): seasonable highs in the low/mid 60s, dewpoints crashing into the mid/upper 30s, and it finally feels like fall. Far southern MN (Fairmont–Albert Lea) could still catch light showers this morning from activity sliding across Iowa — everyone else is dry.
Point forecasts (Thu morning): MSP ~65 NNW 5–15; Duluth ~64 NW 10–15; Brainerd ~62 NW 10–15; Rochester ~63 (patchy fog early, then cloudy). Gusts 20–25 mph common up north (DLH AFD). Dense Fog Advisories for Chisago and western WI expired by 7 AM.
Friday: sunny, dry, highs low 60s under high pressure. Easy fishing weather if your hands still work.
Frost / freeze — headlines are ISSUED for tonight
This is the big upgrade from the live card, which only said headlines were “very likely.”
Freeze Warning — midnight Thu night to 9 AM CDT Friday (NWS Duluth):
- Koochiching, North St. Louis, Central St. Louis
- Lows as low as ~30. Sensitive vegetation and unprotected outdoor plumbing can take a hit.
Frost Advisory — midnight Thu night to 9 AM CDT Friday (NWS Duluth):
- MN: Northern Aitkin, North Itasca, South Itasca, Northern Cook/Lake
- WI: Ashland, Bayfield, Douglas, Iron, Sawyer, Washburn
- Temps as low as ~33; frost formation expected. South Shore counties stay milder.
Frost Advisory — same window (NWS Grand Forks, NW MN): Kittson, Roseau, Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, Hubbard, Wadena, Clay, Polk, Marshall, and neighboring northwest counties — lows 32–36.
HWO Duluth: frost/localized freeze possible again Friday night into Saturday morning (Arrowhead / NW Wisconsin may need another round of headlines). An even more widespread freeze is likely Sunday night into Monday morning — freeze headlines “very likely” to start the work week. Mark that as look-ahead until it’s issued.
Twin Cities CWA: MPX HWO clear — still too mild for frost headlines down here (metro lows Fri morning low/mid 40s). Different zip code, different tomato fate.
Brainerd point low tonight ~38; Duluth ~43 (lakeshore); inland valleys run colder than the city numbers. Protect what you care about.
Lake Superior (nearshore) — SCAs are up today
Small Craft Advisories in effect (issued ~12:40 AM CDT Thu):
- LSZ140–147 (Grand Portage through Twin Ports to Sand Island–Bayfield corridor): 1 PM–7 PM CDT Thursday
- LSZ150 (Outer Apostle Islands beyond 5 NM): 1 PM–10 PM CDT Thursday
- Northwest–west winds 10–15 kt, gusts to 25 kt, waves 1–2 ft
Winds ease Friday as high pressure builds. Look-ahead (HWO DLH): gusty south near Grand Portage Saturday afternoon/evening may get spicy for small craft; then west/northwest gusts 25–30 kt Sunday after the next cool front — more SCA potential. Nothing issued yet for those days.
Weekend into Monday
- Saturday: shortwave along the International Border. Rain has trended north — light/spotty showers mainly north of US Hwy 2 through Saturday afternoon; a few isolated showers can’t be ruled out farther south into NW Wisconsin late day. Metro PoP only ~15%. Highs mid/upper 60s.
- Sunday: another cool front; sunny, low/mid 60s, then the colder night.
- Sunday night–Monday morning: next widespread freeze threat Northland (DLH). Quiet/fair early next week, then warmer midweek (DLH mentions ~70 by Wednesday) with little rain.
No Flood Watch. No severe weather. MPX HWO: no hazardous weather Day 1 or Days 2–7.
Angler cheat sheet (Thu–Mon)
| Cue | Status |
|---|---|
| Thu inland | Breezy NW, dry, low/mid 60s — front is through |
| Freeze Warning | Koochiching / N & Central St. Louis — midnight–9 AM Fri |
| Frost Advisory | Arrowhead inland, Itasca, N Aitkin, NW WI + NW MN (FGF) — same window |
| Fri | Sunny dry low 60s; possible frost headlines again Fri night up north |
| Sat rain | Light, mainly north of Hwy 2; most of the state dry |
| Sun night–Mon AM | Next freeze look Northland (not issued yet) |
| Superior | SCA 1–7 PM Thu (most nearshore); Outer Apostles to 10 PM |
No lake water temperatures, ice, stocking or bite claims in this digest. We didn’t find solid public numbers for those, so we’re not inventing any. Anyway: fish the bluebird Friday if you can, tuck the basil before midnight up north, and give Superior the afternoon off. October showed up with paperwork.
Sources: NWS Twin Cities AFD (555 AM CDT Thu Oct 1) and HWO (254 AM CDT); NWS Duluth AFD (626 AM CDT) and HWO (1244 AM CDT, incl. marine); api.weather.gov active alerts (~9:19 AM CDT Thu) — Freeze Warning, Frost Advisories (DLH + FGF), SCAs LSZ140–147/150 confirmed; NWS point forecasts MSP / Duluth / Rochester / Brainerd (Thu morning). Forecasts change — check weather.gov before you launch.