statewide · 2026-10-09
MN Fish On Conditions — Oct 9–14, 2026 (Fri–Wed)
Source: NWS Twin Cities / NWS Duluth
Public NWS/NOAA cues only. No lake temps claimed.
Look, we owe Lake Superior an apology. Yesterday we called Friday the calm-ish window. This morning NWS Duluth put Small Craft Advisories on every western nearshore zone, and the lake took it personally. Meanwhile the weekend is still running a summer rerun in October: near-record highs Saturday, a warm Sunday, then a front that shows up mostly as wind and attitude, with very little rain. The frost talk for early next week also cooled off, which is a weird sentence to write about frost. Anyway. Here’s the week.
Friday (Oct 9): warm-up, and the big lake gets choppy
- Highs upper 60s to mid 70s south and central (MSP ~74, Rochester ~73, Brainerd ~68). It’s cooler on the North Shore, where onshore east winds keep Duluth near 59, and the afternoon actually dips a little.
- Southeast winds gust 15–25 mph. A few afternoon clouds in the southeast, but it stays dry statewide.
- Tonight: the warm air keeps coming, and temps rise overnight in spots. Lows only fall to the 50s and around 60 (MSP ~61, Brainerd ~57, Duluth ~50). No frost tonight. You can unpack the bedsheets you threw over the hostas.
- Superior: east gusts to 25 kt this afternoon, up to 30 kt near Grand Portage tonight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect (details below).
Saturday (Oct 10): near-record heat, wind, dry air
Still the headline. It’s barely changed since the live card, except the wind numbers came down a notch.
- Highs: MSP ~87, Rochester ~85, Brainerd ~82, Duluth ~80. Both NWS offices call it near record. DLH lists Brainerd’s record as 85 (1928) against a forecast of 82, and Duluth’s as 82 (1938) against 79.
- Wind: south winds gust 25–35 mph across the Northland (DLH). MPX says gusts around 40 mph are possible by afternoon, most likely on the Buffalo Ridge. MSP’s point forecast has gusts as high as 40. A morning inversion should keep things calmer early, so the wind ramps up as the day heats.
- Fire weather: near-critical. DLH says Saturday afternoon and evening along and south of the Iron Range. MPX expects elevated conditions across much of its area, with near-critical chances near the Buffalo Ridge and western MN. It says the humidity call is “borderline,” and western MN could drop into the mid/upper 20s. No Red Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch is issued as of this morning. No Wind Advisory either. Skip the shoreline fire, and don’t park a hot trailer hub on dry grass.
- Saturday night: it stays warm and breezy, with lows only in the 60s (MSP ~67, Duluth ~64, Brainerd ~64). DLH says Duluth, Brainerd and Hibbing could set record warm lows. South gusts keep going overnight.
- Angler read: small, sheltered water, and leeward shorelines. A south wind with that much shove turns a big open lake into a laundromat with a launch ramp.
Sunday (Oct 11): still warm, front arrives from the northwest
- Warmer than yesterday’s card: MSP ~84, Rochester ~83, Duluth ~78, Brainerd ~77. Far north-central MN stays in the 60s because the front gets there first.
- South winds are lighter than Saturday. MSP’s aviation outlook has gusts to about 25 kt. Fire weather is elevated from the I-35 corridor into NW Wisconsin (DLH), with near-critical conditions possible in NW Wisconsin.
- The cold front slides northwest to southeast Sunday into Monday, and MPX says the timing still has some spread. Light rain is possible as early as late Sunday afternoon in north-central MN, and 20–50% chances north of US-2 Sunday night. Most places that get rain see under a tenth of an inch (DLH). Farther south likely stays dry.
Monday–Wednesday (Oct 12–14): cooler, mostly dry, rain chances wait for midweek
- Monday (Columbus Day): the front’s a bit of a dud on rain, especially south. MSP and Rochester only have a 20% afternoon shower chance, and MPX says even the wetter models show “only a few hundredths.” Up north it’s a bit better, ~30–37% at Brainerd and Duluth and 40–70% across north-central MN and the Arrowhead (DLH). Totals top out around a quarter inch in the far north and fall to almost nothing south of US-2.
- Monday highs stay warm south: MSP ~72, Rochester ~75. Up north it’s ~59–60 (Duluth, Brainerd) with northeast winds off the big lake.
- Cooler nights, softer frost talk: DLH has Monday-night lows in the low 30s north to low 40s south, and the low to upper 30s Tuesday night. Point forecasts are milder than that: Brainerd ~42, then ~39, and Duluth ~44, then ~41. MSP drops to ~49 Tuesday night. Frost is possible in the coldest northern low spots. No Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning is issued, and neither office is talking up a hard freeze now.
- Tuesday: high pressure, dry, seasonable. Highs in the mid 50s north, mid 60s south (Duluth ~53, Brainerd ~56, MSP ~64, Rochester ~65).
- Wednesday: rain chances come back. MSP and Rochester are at ~50% (60% Wednesday night, with a few thunderstorms possible), and Brainerd ~42%. Both offices see a stronger system Wednesday night into Thursday, the best rain chance of the next week, and MPX says some model runs show half an inch or more. Timing and track are still uncertain, and MPX says the strongest signal may stay northwest of the metro.
Lake Superior (nearshore)
Small Craft Advisories are in effect now (api.weather.gov, ~9:51 AM CDT Fri):
- Silver Bay to Duluth and the Wisconsin South Shore (Duluth–Port Wing–Sand Island–Bayfield, Chequamegon Bay to Saxon Harbor, outer Apostles): 3 PM to 10 PM today. East winds 10–15 kt gusting to 25 kt, waves up to 3 ft.
- Grand Marais to Silver Bay: 7 PM tonight to 5 AM Saturday. East gusts to 25 kt, waves 1–4 ft.
- Grand Portage to Grand Marais: 7 PM tonight to 9 AM Saturday. East gusts to 30 kt, waves 2–5 ft, building to 3–5 ft overnight.
Saturday daytime looks like a breather on much of the North Shore, with east winds 5–10 kt and waves 1–3 ft. The South Shore turns south and gusty by afternoon, gusting to ~30 kt from Duluth to Port Wing. Saturday night is the rough stretch: southwest winds of 20–25 kt with waves of 4–7 ft (occasionally 9) near Grand Portage. Gusts reach 35 kt from Duluth to Sand Island, where the nearshore forecast says “a gale warning may be needed.” The DLH outlook expects more Small Craft Advisories and says stronger winds come in periods through Monday. No Gale Watch or Gale Warning is issued. Yesterday’s 40–60% gale talk for Saturday has narrowed to a maybe for Saturday night on the South Shore.
Angler cheat sheet (Fri–Wed)
| Cue | Status |
|---|---|
| Fri | Warming, upper 60s–mid 70s south; ~59 Duluth; dry; no frost tonight |
| Superior Fri–Sat AM | Small Craft Advisories in effect for all western nearshore zones (east gusts 25–30 kt) |
| Sat | Near-record heat, mid/upper 80s metro, ~80 Duluth; S gusts 25–35 mph (to ~40 Buffalo Ridge/metro) |
| Fire weather | Near-critical Sat; elevated Sun (near-critical NW WI). No Red Flag or Fire Weather Watch issued |
| Sat night | Lows in the 60s, record warm lows possible; still gusty |
| Superior Sat night | SW 20–25 kt, gusts to 35 kt South Shore; “gale warning may be needed”; nothing issued yet |
| Sun | Still warm (upper 70s–mid 80s); front from NW, light showers north of US-2 at night |
| Mon | Front mostly dry south (20%); ~¼” max far north |
| Mon–Tue nights | 30s north, 40s south; frost possible in cold spots, no headlines |
| Wed | Rain chances return (~50%), better odds Wed night–Thu |
No lake water temperatures, ice, stocking or bite claims in this digest. We didn’t find solid public numbers for those, so we’re not inventing any. The real uncertainties are humidity Saturday (that’s what decides whether fire weather goes from “near-critical” to an actual Red Flag Warning), the exact front timing Sunday night into Monday, and how cold the northern low spots get early next week. A Red Flag Warning, a Gale Warning, or Frost Advisories could still be issued later, so check before you launch. Anyway: Friday the big lake gets choppy, Saturday is the windy furnace, and next week finally feels like October. We got Friday’s lake call wrong yesterday. The lake didn’t mind. It just sent paperwork.
Sources: NWS Twin Cities AFD (559 AM CDT Fri Oct 9, discussion 136 AM) and HWO (204 AM CDT); NWS Duluth AFD (611 AM CDT, update 109 AM, discussion 300 PM Thu) and HWO (316 AM CDT, including marine); NWS Duluth Nearshore Marine Forecast (602 AM CDT); api.weather.gov active alerts (~9:51 AM CDT Fri): none for MN land zones, and Small Craft Advisories for western Superior nearshore zones (marine alerts); NWS point forecasts for MSP, Duluth, Rochester and Brainerd (updated Fri morning). Forecasts change, so check weather.gov before you launch.