statewide · 2026-10-22
MN Fish On Conditions — Oct 22–28, 2026 (Thu–Wed)
Source: NWS Twin Cities / NWS Duluth
Public NWS/NOAA cues only. No lake temps claimed.
Enjoy this stretch, Minnesota, because it’s about to end. We get three more days of mid-70s weather that would look normal in early September, then a cold front shows up Saturday and switches everything to late October. By Monday the highs look a lot like this week’s lows. The front also stalls nearby, so instead of a clean cooldown we may get a soggy Monday on top of it.
Thursday (Oct 22): fog first, then gorgeous
- Fog: patchy dense fog this morning, down to 1/4 mile in spots. NWS Duluth put out a fog statement for Crow Wing, South Aitkin and Carlton/South St. Louis, plus a marine Dense Fog Advisory until noon for Chequamegon Bay and Sand Island to Bayfield. It clears by mid to late morning.
- Then sunny: MSP ~75, Rochester ~77, Brainerd ~72, Duluth ~62. Onshore flow keeps the North Shore in the mid 50s to low 60s.
- More fog and low clouds could roll in off Superior tonight, around Duluth and maybe the Iron Range.
Friday (Oct 23): warm, breezier, showers late
- Highs stay warm: MSP ~73, Rochester ~75, Brainerd ~73, Duluth ~68. Southeast winds gust ~25 kt in the metro.
- A warm front brings scattered light showers Friday afternoon and evening, mainly in central and western MN (Brainerd ~36%, MSP ~21%). A rumble of thunder is possible up north. NWS Twin Cities expects a dry low-level air mass to keep much of it from reaching the ground.
Saturday (Oct 24): last warm day, cold front, maybe a few storms
- Ahead of the front it’s the last really warm day: MSP ~76, Rochester ~77, Duluth ~70, Brainerd ~69. NWS Twin Cities said earlier this week this may be the last 70-degree day of the year.
- Shower chances run ~33–40% across most of the state, lower in the southeast (Rochester ~8%). NWS Duluth says isolated thunderstorms are possible along the front, not severe. Rain should be light, a couple tenths at most, and it ends west to east Saturday night.
- South-southwest gusts of ~25 kt in the metro, 15–20 mph up north.
Lake Superior (nearshore): fog now, wind this weekend
- Now: Dense Fog Advisory until noon for Chequamegon Bay and Sand Island to Bayfield, with visibility 1/4–1/2 NM. Northeast winds of 10–15 kt, gusting to ~20 kt at the head of the lake.
- Friday night–Sunday: gusty south to southwest winds return late Friday. NWS Duluth’s outlook says conditions may become hazardous to small vessels, with a 30–50% chance of gales on Saturday. No Small Craft Advisory or Gale Watch is issued as of ~9:19 AM Thursday.
- Best Superior window: Thursday afternoon through Friday daytime, once the fog lifts.
Sunday (Oct 25): the switch flips
- North winds behind the front. Highs 50–60 (Rochester ~60, MSP ~55, Duluth ~53, Brainerd ~50). A few leftover showers are possible in the south (MSP ~31%).
- Sunday night lows drop to the mid 30s to around 40. NWS Duluth says lows dip below freezing at times through early next week up north.
Monday–Wednesday (Oct 26–28): chilly, with a soggy Monday possible
- Highs in the 40s and low 50s, a little below normal Monday and Tuesday (MSP ~51–52, Rochester ~53, Brainerd ~46–47, Duluth ~47). A little warmer Wednesday, mid 50s in the south.
- Rain: the front stalls, and several weak disturbances ride along it. WPC’s rainfall forecast “markedly increased” for Monday, showing a 0.5–1” strip from southwest toward east-central MN (NWS Twin Cities), and that strip could shift. Point chances Sunday night–Monday: MSP ~52%, Rochester ~55%, Duluth ~36%, Brainerd ~36%.
- Up north, NWS Duluth has been trending that Monday system farther south, with only the Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin at ~20–40%. Brainerd’s point forecast even shows rain and snow showers mixing Sunday night into Monday. No accumulation is in the forecast. Think “oh look, flakes,” not “find the shovel.”
- More chances midweek, but NWS Duluth calls location and timing “highly contested.” Low confidence.
- Angler read: Monday could be a cold, wet day in the south. Up north, frost on the dock is likely most mornings. Plan around the cold, and think hand warmers, not sunscreen.
Angler cheat sheet (Thu–Wed)
| Cue | Status |
|---|---|
| Headlines | Dense Fog Advisory (Chequamegon/Apostle nearshore) until noon Thu; nothing else statewide |
| Thu | Fog early, then sunny 72–77 (North Shore 50s–60s) |
| Fri | Warm, SE gusts of ~25 kt; spotty light showers late, mainly west and north |
| Sat | Last 70s; scattered showers and isolated non-severe storms; light totals |
| Superior Fri night–Sun | Gusty S/SW winds; 30–50% chance of gales Sat; nothing issued yet |
| Sun | Cooler, 50–60, north winds |
| Mon–Wed | Highs in the 40s–50s; freezing nights up north; possible 0.5–1” rain band Mon (placement uncertain); flakes mixing in near Brainerd |
No lake water temperatures, ice, stocking or bite claims in this digest. We didn’t find solid public numbers for those, so we’re not inventing any. Still uncertain: whether Saturday’s Superior winds reach gale force, where Monday’s heavier rain band sets up, and how cold the nights get up north. Check weather.gov before you launch. Fish Thursday and Friday while it’s still warm, use Saturday morning before the front if you can, and bring warmer gear starting Sunday.
Sources: NWS Twin Cities AFD (556 AM CDT Thu Oct 22) and HWO; NWS Duluth AFD (discussion 258 AM, aviation 622 AM CDT, including marine and fire weather) and HWO (including marine); api.weather.gov active alerts for Minnesota and western Lake Superior nearshore (~9:19 AM CDT): Special Weather Statement for fog, marine Dense Fog Advisory; NWS point forecasts for MSP, Duluth, Rochester and Brainerd (Thu morning). Forecasts change, so check weather.gov before you launch.