statewide · 2026-10-23
MN Fish On Conditions — Oct 23–29, 2026 (Fri–Thu)
Source: NWS Twin Cities / NWS Duluth
Public NWS/NOAA cues only. No lake temps claimed.
Minnesota, the warm stretch is down to its last two days and Superior can’t see a thing. Fog sat on the big lake overnight and drifted inland. Then it’s two more days in the 70s with gusty south winds and the odd shower, and a cold front drops us back to late October by Sunday. NWS Twin Cities calls this the “last hurrah” of the October heatwave and says the weekend is “not a washout,” and honestly, we agree with that. The bigger rain shows up Monday, and it has slid west since yesterday.
Friday (Oct 23): fog up north, gusty and warm south
- Dense Fog Advisories until 10 AM (NWS Duluth): Carlton/South St. Louis, Central St. Louis, the North Shore counties (Southern Lake and Southern Cook), and Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland in Wisconsin, with visibility a quarter mile or less. It’s worst near the lake and in the St. Louis River valley. All western Superior nearshore zones had a marine Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM too.
- NWS Duluth says the lake fog may hang around until a warm front pushes it out this evening, so right along the shore it could stay gray and stuck in the 50s (Duluth ~56). Away from the lake, highs are in the 70s: MSP ~75, Rochester ~74, Brainerd ~72.
- South winds gust 25–35 mph across western and central MN this afternoon (NWS Twin Cities).
- Showers: isolated showers start in southwest MN this morning and turn scattered by afternoon, mainly west and central (Brainerd ~52%, MSP ~26%). A few embedded thunderstorms are possible in central MN, and up north NWS Duluth puts a rumble of thunder at about a 15% chance. Totals stay light.
Saturday (Oct 24): last 70s, front, isolated storms
- The last warm day: MSP ~76, Rochester ~76, Duluth ~70, Brainerd ~68.
- The cold front brings scattered showers and a few non-severe storms (Duluth outlook). Chances are ~37–41% for MSP, Duluth and Brainerd, and only ~4% in Rochester.
- Rain stays light, around 0.1” or less where it falls (NWS Twin Cities). It won’t rain everywhere and it won’t rain all day. The showers end west to east Saturday night.
Lake Superior (nearshore)
- This morning: a marine Dense Fog Advisory ran until 10 AM for all western nearshore zones (LSZ121, 140–148, 150), with visibility 1/4 NM or less. Fog may linger into the evening. East-northeast winds 5–10 kt.
- Tonight–Saturday: winds turn south and strengthen behind the warm front, and NWS Duluth says Small Craft Advisories may be needed. That’s a step down from yesterday’s 30–50% gale chance, which isn’t mentioned anymore. Nothing is issued as of ~9:17 AM.
- Superior is a no-go this morning in the fog. Wait to see whether a Small Craft Advisory gets issued for Saturday. Sunday’s west breeze looks easier.
Sunday (Oct 25): cooler, mostly dry
- Highs 52–59 (Rochester ~59, MSP ~57, Duluth ~55, Brainerd ~52). It’s mostly dry, which is a change from the earlier card’s showers.
- It’s dry up north: NWS Duluth has afternoon humidity in the 20s–30s with west gusts around 20 mph. There’s no fire weather headline or concern flagged, but it’s a bad day to burn.
- Sunday night lows: ~33 at Brainerd and ~38 at Duluth, and colder in spots up north.
Monday–Thursday (Oct 26–29): chilly and damp, rain shifting west
- Monday rain: a low tracks northeast from the central Plains. NWS Twin Cities now puts the heavier rain in western MN, ~0.5–0.75”, with ~0.2–0.5” farther east, falling gradually Monday into Tuesday. That’s a shift west from yesterday’s “southwest to east-central” strip. Placement could still move.
- Snow mix: NWS Twin Cities says any flakes should stay north and east of its area. Brainerd’s point forecast no longer shows a rain–snow mix; it’s rain showers now. Up north, NWS Duluth has 30s for lows, so a stray flake can’t be ruled out in the far north, but nothing is forecast.
- Highs: Monday mid 40s to mid 50s (MSP ~51, Rochester ~55, Brainerd ~45, Duluth ~45). Tuesday is similar. Wednesday warms toward the mid 50s to low 60s (MSP ~62).
- On-and-off shower chances run ~25–50% from Monday through Wednesday night. Timing is fuzzy.
- Angler read: a cold, drizzly Monday out west. Frosty mornings up north. Wednesday looks like the best day of the week.
Angler cheat sheet (Fri–Thu)
| Cue | Status |
|---|---|
| Fri AM | Dense Fog Advisories around western Superior and inland Carlton/St. Louis until 10 AM; lake fog may linger |
| Fri PM | 70s inland, S gusts of 25–35 mph west and central; scattered showers and isolated storms |
| Sat | Last 70s; cold front; light showers and a few non-severe storms; ≤0.1” |
| Superior Fri night–Sat | South winds; Small Craft Advisory may be needed; gale chance dropped |
| Sun | Cooler (52–59), mostly dry, dry air up north |
| Mon–Tue | 40s–50s; 0.5–0.75” west, 0.2–0.5” east (uncertain); snow mix not expected in central/southern MN |
| Wed–Thu | Milder, near 60 in the metro; scattered showers |
No lake water temperatures, ice, stocking or bite claims in this digest. We didn’t find solid public numbers for those, so we’re not inventing any. Still uncertain: whether Saturday’s south winds earn a Small Craft Advisory, exactly where Monday’s heavier rain falls, and how many nights get to freezing up north. Check weather.gov before you launch. Fish this afternoon or Saturday morning while it’s still warm. If you’re on Superior, wait for the fog to lift first.
Sources: NWS Twin Cities AFD (discussion 302 AM CDT Fri Oct 23) and HWO; NWS Duluth AFD (232 AM CDT, including marine and fire weather) and HWO (including marine); api.weather.gov active alerts for Minnesota and western Lake Superior nearshore (~9:17 AM CDT): Dense Fog Advisories; NWS point forecasts for MSP, Duluth, Rochester and Brainerd (Fri morning). Forecasts change, so check weather.gov before you launch.