statewide · 2026-10-26
MN Fish On Conditions — Oct 26–Nov 1, 2026 (Mon–Sun)
Source: NWS Twin Cities / NWS Duluth
Public NWS/NOAA cues only. No lake temps claimed.
Minnesota got its “seasonable” week for exactly one day. Today is cold and wet, with highs in the 40s and rain that just keeps going, and anyone up north could see a few snowflakes before sunrise Tuesday. Then it warms right back up: Wednesday flirts with 70, there’s a thunderstorm chance Wednesday evening, and Halloween weekend stays in the low 60s. The week-of-40s-and-50s forecast from last week is out.
Monday (Oct 26): the soggy day
- Steady rain from midday into tonight. The heaviest falls late afternoon and evening, spreading from southwest MN to the northeast. It tapers off around daybreak Tuesday.
- Where it’s heaviest (NWS Twin Cities): a narrow corridor from Sioux Falls to Redwood Falls to St. Cloud, where 1”+ is possible. That’s farther east than Friday’s card said.
- Chance of more than 0.5”: 80–90% at Madison, Redwood Falls, Alexandria and St. Cloud. 50–60% at Mankato and the Twin Cities metro, with a sharp drop-off from northwest to southeast across the metro. Under 20% at Red Wing and Eau Claire.
- Up north (NWS Duluth): 0.5–0.75” possible from the Brainerd Lakes into southern Pine and Burnett counties, less north and east.
- Highs only in the 40s (MSP ~49, Brainerd ~45, Duluth ~43). Near I-90 it may reach the low 50s (Rochester ~52).
- Angler read: muddy ramps and rising creeks. Cold-rain fishing is for people who own good rain gear.
Tuesday (Oct 27): flakes up north early, then milder; Superior gets choppy
- Snow mix: NWS Duluth keeps a trace of snow in the forecast for early Tuesday. A rain–snow mix or light snow showers are most likely in north-central MN and the far northern Arrowhead, where lows hit the upper 20s. Little to no accumulation, and it melts by late morning.
- Rain lingers up north Tuesday (Duluth ~85%, Brainerd ~85%) and ends southwest to northeast in the afternoon. Down south it’s mostly done by morning.
- Much warmer south: MSP ~63, Rochester ~67. Upper 40s to low 50s up north (Duluth ~49, Brainerd ~52). Southeast gusts of ~25 kt in the metro, and east to southeast gusts of 15–25 mph up north.
Lake Superior (nearshore): Small Craft Advisories Tuesday
NWS Duluth has issued Small Craft Advisories:
- Silver Bay to Two Harbors to Duluth, and Duluth to Port Wing: 4 AM–7 PM Tuesday. East winds 10–20 kt, gusts to 30 kt, waves 2–5 ft.
- Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay: 4 AM–10 PM Tuesday. East 10–20 kt, gusts to 25 kt, waves 2–5 ft.
- Grand Portage to Grand Marais: 10 AM Tuesday–1 AM Wednesday. Southeast 10–15 kt, gusts to 25 kt, waves 3–5 ft.
- Port Wing to Bayfield and the Outer Apostles: 7 AM–4 PM Tuesday. East 10–15 kt, gusts to 25 kt, waves 1–3 ft.
Winds turn south to southwest and ease Tuesday night into Wednesday. Superior is a no-go for small boats Tuesday. Thursday looks like the better window.
Wednesday (Oct 28): warmest day, evening storms
- Highs in the upper 60s to around 70 south (MSP ~69, Rochester ~72), ~60 at Duluth and Brainerd.
- A cold front comes through later in the day. NWS Twin Cities expects showers and scattered thunderstorms Wednesday evening, with chances of ~80% for MSP and Rochester Wednesday night. No severe weather is mentioned. Northern rain amounts don’t look impressive (NWS Duluth).
- Angler read: fish the warm afternoon and get off the water before the evening storms.
Thursday–Sunday (Oct 29–Nov 1): mild, with a soggy-ish Halloween weekend
- Thursday: the front sags south, leaving a dry, sunny, slightly cooler day. MSP ~63, Rochester ~66, Brainerd ~57, Duluth ~55. This is the cleanest day of the week.
- Friday–Sunday: still above normal, with highs in the low 60s south (MSP ~62–63, Rochester ~65–66) and 50s up north (Duluth ~51–54, Brainerd ~56–58).
- Rain: NWS Twin Cities says nearly every ensemble member brings measurable rain this weekend, but timing is uncertain. There are chance showers on Halloween itself (MSP ~55%, Rochester ~60% Saturday). The earlier idea of a warm Friday has also been scaled back. Expect this part to change.
Angler cheat sheet (Mon–Sun)
| Cue | Status |
|---|---|
| Mon | Steady rain; 1”+ possible Sioux Falls–Redwood Falls–St. Cloud; ~50/50 for 0.5”+ in the metro; highs in the 40s |
| Tue AM | Rain–snow mix possible in north-central MN and the Arrowhead; trace at most, melts quickly |
| Superior Tue | Small Craft Advisories from the North Shore to the Twin Ports to the Apostles; gusts 25–30 kt, waves up to 5 ft |
| Tue–Wed | Warming to 60s, ~70 south Wed; evening showers and storms Wed |
| Thu | Dry, sunny, upper 50s–60s; best day of the week |
| Fri–Sun | Low 60s south, 50s north; rain likely at some point this weekend, timing uncertain |
| MN headlines | None as of ~9:25 AM CDT |
No lake water temperatures, ice, stocking or bite claims in this digest. We didn’t find solid public numbers for those, so we’re not inventing any. Still uncertain: exactly where today’s 1”+ corridor sets up across the metro, whether Tuesday’s flakes reach the ground outside the far north, and when this weekend’s rain comes through. Check weather.gov before you launch. Skip Monday, get off Superior Tuesday, fish Wednesday afternoon, and Thursday is the best day of the week.
Sources: NWS Twin Cities AFD (discussion 230 AM, aviation 556 AM CDT Mon Oct 26) and HWO; NWS Duluth AFD (update 136 AM Mon, discussion 110 PM Sun, including marine and fire weather) and HWO (including marine); api.weather.gov active alerts for Minnesota and western Lake Superior nearshore (~9:25 AM CDT): Small Craft Advisories for Tuesday; NWS point forecasts for MSP, Duluth, Rochester and Brainerd (Mon morning). Forecasts change, so check weather.gov before you launch.