statewide · 2026-10-28
MN Fish On Conditions — Oct 28–Nov 3, 2026 (Wed–Tue)
Source: NWS Twin Cities / NWS Duluth
Public NWS/NOAA cues only. No lake temps claimed.
Late October skipped “sweater weather” and went straight to “storm spotter weather.” Today is the warmest day of the stretch, with 60s to low 70s and dewpoints near 60, which in Minnesota in late October is like your uncle showing up to Thanksgiving in a tank top. A cold front runs into all that this afternoon, and NWS has a severe weather risk out. Then it calms down: sunny Thursday and Friday, a Halloween forecast that’s drier than it looked yesterday, and a rainy but much less stormy start to next week.
Wednesday (Oct 28): severe storms possible this afternoon and evening
- Severe risk: NWS Twin Cities, working with SPC, has moved a small area around the Twin Cities metro and into far western WI up to a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). The NWS Twin Cities and NWS Duluth hazardous weather outlooks now carry a severe mention:
- NWS Twin Cities: “some storms may be strong to severe with a few tornadoes, large hail or damaging winds possible.” Spotters may be activated this afternoon and evening.
- NWS Duluth: isolated to scattered strong to severe storms in east-central MN and northwest WI, with hail up to half-dollar size, a small tornado chance and wind gusts to 60 mph.
- Timing: storms start in western MN early afternoon and shift east. NWS Twin Cities puts the main line at MSP around 4–7 PM CDT. The strongest-storm window is short (about 3–4 hours mid to late afternoon), and everything is out of the area by midnight.
- The big caveat: NWS calls it “highly conditional.” If the morning low clouds and fog hang on, the tornado and wind threat mostly goes away and the hail threat drops, though it doesn’t disappear. Northwest WI has the best shot at clearing out, so supercells are most likely there.
- Rain: about 0.1–0.25” around MSP and Rochester, and 0.25–0.5” for Brainerd and Duluth. NWS Duluth says some storms could top 1”.
- Highs: MSP ~69, Rochester ~72, Brainerd ~61, Duluth ~59. Fog this morning.
- Angler read: fish the morning if the fog lets you, and be off the water by mid-afternoon. Late October storms don’t care that you were “just about to get one.” If you hear thunder, you’re close enough to get hit.
Lake Superior (nearshore): Small Craft Advisories Thursday
Tuesday’s easterly advisories have expired. NWS Duluth has issued a new round for westerly winds behind the front, covering every nearshore zone:
- Grand Portage to Silver Bay to Two Harbors (LSZ140–143): 4 AM–4 PM Thursday. West winds 10–15 kt, gusts to 25 kt, waves 1–2 ft.
- Two Harbors to Duluth to Port Wing (LSZ144–145): 4 AM–4 PM Thursday. West 10–15 kt, gusts to 25 kt, waves 1–2 ft.
- Port Wing to Bayfield, Chequamegon Bay and Oak Point to Saxon Harbor (LSZ121, 146–148): 4 AM–4 PM Thursday. West 10–20 kt, gusts to 25 kt, waves 1–3 ft.
- Outer Apostles (LSZ150): 1 AM–4 PM Thursday. West 10–20 kt, gusts to 25 kt, waves 1–4 ft.
The marine hazardous weather outlook also flags storms this evening, with hail up to nickel size and cloud-to-water lightning. Winds ease and turn northwest Thursday night. Small boats should skip Superior this evening and Thursday. Friday looks like the calmer window, though that’s an inference from the forecast, not a promise.
Thursday–Friday (Oct 29–30): the reward days
- Dry, sunny and cooler behind the front, with fog possible in the early mornings. MSP ~58–59, Rochester ~61, Brainerd ~51–54, Duluth ~50. West winds gust to 20–25 mph Thursday up north.
- Lows: upper 30s to low 40s south, and 33–34 around Brainerd Thursday and Friday nights. NWS has no frost headline, but cold spots up north could be close to freezing. NWS Twin Cities still doesn’t expect a solid freeze until at least mid-November.
- Angler read: Thursday afternoon and Friday are the best days of the window. Bluebird skies after a front can make fish moody, so slow down and bring patience along with your snacks.
Halloween weekend (Oct 31–Nov 1): less soggy than it looked
- New trend: NWS Twin Cities says the front won’t come back north as far as earlier forecasts showed. Saturday’s rain chances are now lower and mostly limited to southern MN, as scattered showers. Yesterday’s card called it “likely Friday night–Saturday.”
- Saturday rain chances: MSP ~30%, Rochester ~40%, Brainerd ~13%, Duluth ~3%. Friday night looks mostly dry.
- Sunday: only slight chances (15–20%). NWS Duluth sees the next rain chance building late Sunday into next week.
- Highs: upper 50s to mid 60s south (MSP 59–63, Rochester 61–65), upper 40s to near 60 north. Lows stay above freezing.
- Trick-or-treat outlook: probably a hoodie and maybe a light rain jacket south of the metro, and probably fine up north. The timing is still uncertain, so check again Friday.
Monday–Tuesday (Nov 2–3): steadier rain, fewer storms
- NWS Twin Cities now tracks the next system farther south, which “greatly” scales back the storm chance. Expect steadier light rain instead of another stormy front.
- Rain chances: MSP 40–53% Monday through Monday night, Rochester ~60% Monday night, Brainerd and Duluth 30–48%.
- Northeast winds pick up Monday night into Tuesday, gusting to 25 mph at Duluth. That’s worth watching for the North Shore. There’s no marine headline that far out yet, so treat this as uncertain.
- Highs: upper 50s to mid 60s south, low to mid 50s north, sliding back into the 50s by midweek.
Angler cheat sheet (Wed–Tue)
| Cue | Status |
|---|---|
| Wed PM | Severe storms possible; SPC Slight Risk (2/5) around the metro and western WI; large hail, 60 mph gusts, a few tornadoes possible; highly conditional; MSP ~4–7 PM; done by midnight |
| Superior Thu | Small Craft Advisories, all nearshore zones, 4 AM–4 PM (Outer Apostles from 1 AM); west gusts to 25 kt |
| Thu–Fri | Dry and sunny; 50s to around 60; best days of the window |
| Halloween | Rain chances lower, mostly southern MN (MSP ~30%); north mostly dry |
| Mon–Tue | Steadier rain, less storm risk; northeast winds gust to 25 mph at Duluth |
| Frost/freeze | No headlines; Brainerd lows 33–34 Thu and Fri nights |
| MN land headlines | None issued as of ~9:20 AM CDT. Watch for watches or warnings this afternoon |
No lake water temperatures, ice, stocking or bite claims in this digest. We didn’t find solid public numbers for those, so we’re not inventing any. Still uncertain: whether today’s clouds break enough for the storms to get going, the exact Halloween rain footprint, and how windy Superior gets early next week. Check weather.gov and radar before you launch today. Storms this afternoon, wind on Superior Thursday, and good fishing Thursday afternoon through Friday.
Sources: NWS Twin Cities AFD (discussion 249 AM, aviation 636 AM CDT Wed Oct 28) and HWO (257 AM); NWS Duluth AFD (update and marine 218 AM, aviation 648 AM Wed; discussion 155 PM Tue) and HWO (344 AM, including Lake Superior); SPC convective outlooks (Slight Risk as cited by NWS Twin Cities); api.weather.gov active alerts for Minnesota (none) and western Lake Superior nearshore (Small Craft Advisories for Thursday, issued 1:54 AM CDT); NWS point forecasts for MSP, Duluth, Rochester and Brainerd (~9:20 AM CDT). Forecasts change, so check weather.gov before you launch.