statewide · 2026-10-30
MN Fish On Conditions — Oct 30–Nov 5, 2026 (Fri–Thu)
Source: NWS Twin Cities / NWS Duluth
Public NWS/NOAA cues only. No lake temps claimed.
Friday is calm, dry and quiet, and it’s the best day of the week. Halloween gets a few hit-and-miss showers, enough to soak a cardboard costume but not much more. Then early next week, a slow-moving storm brings near-record moisture for November, and it’s all rain because there’s no cold air for it to work with. NWS Twin Cities called it a “waste of a good winter storm.”
Friday (Oct 30): the pick
- Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with very light winds statewide. MSP ~53, Rochester ~54, Brainerd ~50, Duluth ~49.
- Tonight: below freezing for most of the north (NWS Duluth), with Brainerd ~35 and colder spots in the upper 20s. The metro and south stay in the upper 40s under clouds. There’s no frost or freeze headline.
- Superior: high pressure keeps winds light, and NWS Duluth has no marine concerns through the weekend.
- Angler read: launch today. It’s calm and stable, and it may be the last easy day before the water comes up.
Halloween weekend (Oct 31–Nov 1): damp at worst
- Saturday: scattered, hit-and-miss showers moving north. NWS Twin Cities held rain chances in the “chance” range because the activity looks spotty, and says the rain “shouldn’t dampen any Halloween plans you have too much.” Totals are under a tenth of an inch (NWS Duluth).
- Saturday rain chances: Rochester ~60% (showers could start after 2 AM), Brainerd ~52%, MSP ~40%, Duluth ~26% after noon. Most of it ends by Saturday evening.
- Sunday: dry and mild, 10–20° above normal. MSP and Rochester ~64, Brainerd ~61, Duluth ~58, and mid to upper 50s along the Superior shoreline.
- Trick-or-treat outlook: mild and cloudy, and maybe damp. NWS Twin Cities says this won’t be a repeat of the Halloween 1991 blizzard.
Monday–Tuesday (Nov 2–3): the big soak
- Setup: a slow-moving low (low 990s mb) crosses MN Monday into Tuesday. Guidance has shifted it north. Moisture surges to near 400% of normal for early November, which NWS Twin Cities called “near record.”
- Monday: a broad band of moderate rain moves north.
- Monday night–Tuesday: more rain wraps around the low, plus showers ahead of the cold front. NWS Twin Cities says there will “probably” be a few thunderstorms, and Brainerd’s point forecast has “showers and thunderstorms likely” Tuesday.
- Rain totals (now published):
- NWS Twin Cities: the European ensemble shows a 70–90% chance of more than 1” across the entire Twin Cities forecast area. Much of the guidance has a band of 2”+ north of the low’s track, and the 90th-percentile total at MSP is over 3”. For context, MSP averages 1.61” for the whole month of November.
- NWS Duluth: widespread ~1”, with around 2” or a bit more in spots.
- Where the heaviest band sets up still depends on the track. NWS Duluth notes the models don’t fully agree.
- Flooding: no flood headlines. NWS Duluth says rain bands should move fast enough that flooding from heavy rain rates shouldn’t be a problem, and that the rain should help with the ongoing drought. Expect rising rivers and creeks, high stained inflows and sloppy ramps anyway.
- Storms: NWS Twin Cities is watching a low-instability, high-wind-shear setup in the warm sector, with winds near 50 kt a few thousand feet up and dewpoints in the low 60s. Thick clouds should limit it for now, but they’re “keeping a close eye” on it. There’s no severe mention in the outlook yet.
- Wind: southeast gusts to ~30 mph Monday through Monday night (MSP, Brainerd). On Superior, east to northeast winds are likely Monday evening through Tuesday, and NWS Duluth says Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Duluth’s point forecast has east winds of 15–25 mph Monday night.
- Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
- Angler read: Monday and Tuesday are good days to stay off the water. Plan around rising water afterward.
Wednesday–Thursday (Nov 4–5): drying out slowly
- Showers linger Wednesday in the northwest flow behind the low (30–50%), and Duluth says some rain could linger into Thursday. Highs drop to the 50s. Northwest gusts reach 20–25 mph up north. NWS Twin Cities notes a lot of spread in how long the damp weather hangs on.
Angler cheat sheet (Fri–Thu)
| Cue | Status |
|---|---|
| Fri | Calm, mostly sunny, 49–54; best day; freezing tonight up north, no headline |
| Halloween | Hit-and-miss showers, mostly under 0.1”; ends by evening |
| Sun | Mild, near 60s, dry |
| Mon–Tue | Big all-rain storm: 70–90% chance of 1”+ in the Twin Cities area; 2”+ bands possible; a few storms possible; SE gusts ~30 mph |
| Superior | No concerns through the weekend; Small Craft Advisories may be needed Mon evening–Tue (east to northeast winds) |
| Headlines | None for MN land or Superior as of ~9:20 AM CDT |
No lake water temperatures, ice, stocking or bite claims in this digest. We didn’t find solid public numbers for those, so we’re not inventing any. Still uncertain: the exact path of Monday–Tuesday’s low and its 2” band, whether any storms get going Tuesday, and whether Superior gets advisories. Check weather.gov before you launch. Fish Friday, enjoy a mild Halloween, and get ready for the rain early next week.
Sources: NWS Twin Cities AFD (discussion 337 AM CDT Fri Oct 30) and HWO; NWS Duluth AFD (update, marine and fire weather 127 AM Fri; discussion 254 PM Thu) and HWO (including Lake Superior); api.weather.gov active alerts for Minnesota and western Lake Superior nearshore (none active, ~9:20 AM CDT); NWS point forecasts for MSP, Duluth, Rochester and Brainerd (~9:20 AM CDT). Forecasts change, so check weather.gov before you launch.