Statewide · 2026-11-03
MN Fish On Conditions — Nov 3–9
Source: NWS Twin Cities / NWS Duluth
Public NWS/NOAA cues only. No lake temps claimed.
Round one is in the books. NWS Twin Cities says western and central Minnesota “were the winners,” which is the first time in years anybody’s called a rainy Monday a win. It came in around 0.75–1” over 24 hours, and a handful of spots in far west-central MN got 1.5–2”. The forecasters hope it shows up in this week’s drought monitor update. So do the boat ramps that have been sitting high and dry since 2021.
Now the second low is on its way in. It’s a little lighter than yesterday’s card said down south, but it’s still wet. Things dry out Thursday and November finally acts like November.
Tuesday (Nov 3): fog this morning, rain back this afternoon
- Right now: mostly drizzle and fog after the overnight lull. NWS Twin Cities expects low ceilings and drizzle to stick around, so visibility will go up and down.
- Rain returns from the south late this morning into the afternoon. NWS Twin Cities puts the heaviest window at MSP around noon–5 PM, with a break this evening and another heavier round early Wednesday morning.
- Temperatures: today’s highs were mostly set around midnight. Expect steady or slowly falling temps today (MSP ~59, Rochester ~65, Duluth ~57, Brainerd ~53).
- Wind: north-northwest gusts up to 30 mph in the western half of the state. It’s lighter in the east.
- Up north: NWS Duluth’s hazard outlook mentions isolated, non-severe thunder this afternoon and tonight, and says “isolated marginal flooding and ponding of water is possible, especially in areas of poor drainage.” NWS Twin Cities lists no hazards for central and southern MN.
Lake Superior (nearshore): fog now, Small Craft Advisories tonight
- Dense Fog Advisory until noon today for the MN North Shore from Grand Portage down to Duluth, and from Duluth to Port Wing.
- Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM tonight to 10 AM CST Wednesday for the whole MN shore, Grand Portage through Two Harbors to Duluth, plus Duluth to Port Wing, Port Wing to Sand Island and Sand Island to Bayfield. The Outer Apostles run until 4 PM Wednesday. Northeast gusts reach 25 kt, and waves build past 4 ft around the Twin Ports and the Outer Apostles.
- Looking ahead: NWS Duluth says north-northeast gusts of 25–30 kt are possible from Thursday morning into Thursday night across much of the western nearshore, so more hazardous conditions for small boats are possible.
- Angler read: yesterday’s advisories covered just the upper shore. Tonight’s covers the whole MN side, Twin Ports included. Fog this morning, waves tonight, more wind Thursday. That’s three different reasons to stay off the big lake this week.
Wednesday–Thursday (Nov 4–5): the second round wraps up
- Rain chances Wednesday: MSP ~87%, Rochester ~85%, Brainerd ~96%, Duluth ~94%. Rain continues Wednesday night and tapers west to east Thursday.
- How much more (today through Wed night/Thu):
- NWS Twin Cities: 0.5–1” more, heaviest over western and central MN. That’s less than Monday’s round and a step down from yesterday’s 1–2” estimate.
- NWS Duluth: 0.75–2” more for most of the Northland, and around 2” along the North Shore highlands in southern Lake and Cook counties. Its multi-day storm totals are still 1–2” broadly, with 2–3”+ possible in north-central MN and on the North Shore ridge.
- These are forecasts. The heaviest band can still shift.
- Wind: turns northwest Wednesday afternoon as cooler air moves in. Highs drop from the low-to-mid 50s Wednesday to the mid-40s north and about 49 south Thursday.
- Angler read: rivers and creeks that took on Monday’s rain get another dose. Expect rising water, muddy inflows, slick ramps and floating debris, especially in western, central and north-central MN. We’re not guessing about how fish react. Let the water crest and check local reports first.
Friday–Monday (Nov 6–9): back to normal November
- Friday: dry, partly to mostly sunny up north, and possibly still fairly cloudy south (NWS Twin Cities). Highs 40–42 at Duluth and Brainerd, about 47 at MSP and Rochester.
- Lows: NWS Twin Cities says lows will be near or below freezing through the weekend. Brainerd is forecast ~29 Thursday night and ~28 Friday night, and Duluth ~31 Friday night. There’s no frost or freeze headline. Late-season frost is normal now, but plan for icy docks and ramps early in the morning.
- Saturday: mostly dry, highs in the mid-to-upper 40s north and around 50 south. A weak disturbance brings a 15–20% chance of light rain Saturday night into Sunday, with no significant amounts expected.
- Sunday–Monday: mostly sunny. NWS Twin Cities says highs climb back into the mid-to-upper 50s early next week, with high pressure keeping it dry into midweek.
- Angler read: Friday and Saturday look like the pick for getting out, as long as your river or lake has settled. Bring layers and watch for frost on the dock.
Angler cheat sheet (Nov 3–9)
| Cue | Status |
|---|---|
| Round one (Mon) | ~0.75–1” widely in western and central MN; a few 1.5–2” totals in far west-central MN |
| Today | Drizzle and fog this morning; rain returns late morning and afternoon; NNW gusts to 30 mph in the west; isolated non-severe thunder north |
| Superior | Dense Fog Advisory until noon; Small Craft Advisory 6 PM tonight–10 AM CST Wed for the whole MN shore and Twin Ports (until 4 PM Wed for the Outer Apostles); 25–30 kt gusts possible again Thu |
| Round two (Tue–Wed night) | 0.5–1” more south and central; 0.75–2” more north; around 2” on the North Shore highlands |
| Thu | Rain tapers west to east; cooler, with highs mid-40s to about 49 |
| Fri–Mon | Dry and cooler; lows near or below freezing; slight rain chance Sat night; warming back into the 50s early next week |
| Headlines | No MN land watches or warnings. Superior has the fog advisory and Small Craft Advisories. NWS Duluth notes possible marginal flooding and ponding in poor drainage areas. (As of ~9:20 AM CST) |
No lake water temperatures, bite reports or stocking claims in this digest. We didn’t find solid public numbers for those, so we’re not inventing any. Still uncertain: where today and Wednesday’s heaviest rain lands, how far rivers rise after two rounds, and whether any flood headlines get issued. Check weather.gov before you launch.
Sources: NWS Twin Cities AFD (discussion 146 AM, aviation 455 AM CST Tue Nov 3) and HWO (no hazards); NWS Duluth AFD (update, marine and fire weather 306 AM; aviation 533 AM CST) and HWO (320 AM CST, including Lake Superior); api.weather.gov active alerts for Minnesota (Dense Fog Advisory and Small Craft Advisories on the western Lake Superior nearshore, no land alerts); NWS point forecasts for MSP, Duluth, Rochester and Brainerd (~9:20 AM CST). Forecasts change, so check weather.gov before you launch.