Statewide · 2026-11-04
MN Fish On Conditions — Nov 4–10, 2026 (Wed–Tue)
Source: NWS Twin Cities / NWS Duluth
Public NWS/NOAA cues only. No lake temps claimed.
The rain gauge outside my garage has stopped looking like a gauge and started looking like a cry for help. NWS Twin Cities says MSP and St. Cloud set daily rainfall records on Nov 3. St. Cloud has already gone past its whole November average (1.82” in two days vs. 1.37”), and MSP is at 1.31” of its usual 1.61”. One more wet day, and then the storm finally leaves. Superior gets the parting shot: a Gale Warning on the upper North Shore Thursday.
Wednesday (Nov 4): one more soggy day
- Rain all day with patchy fog and isolated, non-severe thunder up north. The low is sitting over western Wisconsin and isn’t in a hurry.
- How much more:
- NWS Twin Cities: another 0.5–1” area-wide through tonight. Eastern MN may get a short lull this evening.
- NWS Duluth: 0.5–1.75”, heaviest in the Arrowhead, far northern MN and the South Shore, and lightest in east-central MN. Most of it falls today into this evening. Point forecasts for today: Duluth 0.5–0.75”, Brainerd 0.25–0.5”.
- Flooding: NWS Duluth’s hazard outlook mentions “isolated marginal flooding and ponding of water” in areas with poor drainage. No flood watches or warnings have been issued as of ~9:20 AM CST.
- Wind: north gusts of 25–30 mph at Brainerd and Duluth. NWS Duluth adds north gusts up to 40 mph on the higher terrain of Cook and Lake counties tonight into Thursday morning.
- Highs: MSP ~55, Duluth ~52, Rochester ~51 and falling, Brainerd ~50.
Lake Superior (nearshore): Gale Warning Thursday
- Today: this morning’s northeast advisories run out this afternoon:
- Grand Marais to Two Harbors to Duluth (LSZ141–144): until 3 PM CST. Gusts to 30 kt, waves 2–5 ft.
- Duluth to Port Wing to Bayfield (LSZ145–147): until 6 PM. Gusts to 25 kt, waves 3–6 ft.
- Outer Apostles (LSZ150): until 6 PM. Gusts to 30 kt, waves 3–6 ft.
- Yesterday’s card said these would end at 10 AM, so they’re running longer than carded.
- New: Gale Warning, Grand Portage to Grand Marais (LSZ140), 3 AM–6 PM CST Thursday. North winds 15–25 kt, gusts to 40 kt, waves 2–5 ft. A Small Craft Advisory covers that zone until the warning starts.
- Tonight into Thursday: NWS Duluth says it will issue another round of Small Craft Advisories for northerly gusts of 25–40 kt, strongest up the shore and weakest near the Twin Ports. Winds ease Thursday evening and night.
- Possible snow, Wisconsin side: light lake-effect showers on the South Shore Thursday into Thursday night may mix with light snow on the higher ground in Ashland and Iron counties. NWS says a couple tenths of an inch at most, on elevated surfaces.
- Angler read: yesterday it was fog. Today it’s waves, tomorrow it’s a gale. Superior is closed to small boats through Thursday. Your boat will understand. Your buddy who “knows a guy with a bigger boat” will not.
Thursday (Nov 5): rain leaves, cold moves in
- Rain ends west to east in the morning. Scattered showers hang on in far eastern and western MN early, and showers linger longest in northwest Wisconsin. Mostly dry by afternoon.
- Highs 42–49 with a gusty north wind (Brainerd and Rochester gusts to ~28–30 mph). Clouds clear overnight.
Friday–Tuesday (Nov 6–10): dry, cold mornings, then a nice warm-up
- Cold mornings: NWS Twin Cities says MSP could see its first 32° morning of the season Saturday. That would be one of the three latest first freezes on record for MSP. Outside the metro, lows drop into the 20s, and NWS Duluth says a few spots up north could reach the teens Thursday and Friday nights.
- Point lows: Brainerd ~25–26, Duluth ~28–30, Rochester ~28 Friday night, MSP ~31.
- There’s no frost or freeze headline. Expect slick docks, ramps and boat decks early in the morning.
- Highs: around 40–46 Friday, upper 40s Saturday, and the 50s Sunday through Tuesday (MSP ~58 and Rochester ~60 Monday; Duluth ~52 and Brainerd ~55).
- Rain: basically none. A mostly dry front Saturday evening into Sunday brings a 10–20% chance of sprinkles to the Arrowhead and the border lakes, and NWS Twin Cities expects dry high pressure through the rest of the period. Point forecasts stay at 0–8% Friday through Tuesday.
- The good part: NWS Twin Cities says the headwaters drought could finally be breaking after years of low water. Anyone who’s walked a ramp that’s ended way short of the waterline knows how big a deal that is.
- Angler read: Saturday through Tuesday is the window. It’s dry, sunny and getting warmer. Give the rivers and inflows time to come down after a week like this, and check local reports first. We’re not guessing at water levels or fish activity.
Angler cheat sheet (Nov 4–10)
| Cue | Status |
|---|---|
| Today | Rain all day; +0.5–1” south, +0.5–1.75” north; marginal ponding in poor drainage; ends W→E tonight–Thu AM |
| Records | MSP and St. Cloud set daily rain records Nov 3; St. Cloud already past its November average |
| Superior today | Advisories until 3 PM (Grand Marais–Duluth) and 6 PM (Twin Ports–Apostles); waves up to 6 ft |
| Superior Thu | Gale Warning, Grand Portage–Grand Marais, 3 AM–6 PM CST (gusts to 40 kt); more Small Craft Advisories expected for 25–40 kt north gusts |
| Thu | Drying out; highs in the 40s; gusty north winds; a little South Shore snow possible on high ground |
| Fri–Sat | Dry and cold; lows in the 20s, some teens north; MSP may hit 32° Sat; no freeze headline |
| Sun–Tue | Sunny, highs in the 50s; best days to get out |
| MN land headlines | None as of ~9:20 AM CST |
No lake water temperatures, bite reports, stocking or water-level claims in this digest. We didn’t find solid public numbers for those, so we’re not inventing any. Still uncertain: where today’s last heavy band ends up, how high rivers crest after a week of rain, and when the next round of Superior advisories goes out. Check weather.gov before you launch. The storm has one more day in it, and then the weekend looks good.
Sources: NWS Twin Cities AFD (discussion 257 AM, aviation 517 AM CST Wed Nov 4) and HWO (no hazards); NWS Duluth AFD (discussion and marine 1236 AM, aviation 542 AM CST) and HWO (including Lake Superior); api.weather.gov active alerts for Minnesota (no land alerts) and western Lake Superior nearshore (Gale Warning for LSZ140 and Small Craft Advisories); NWS point forecasts for MSP, Duluth, Rochester and Brainerd (~9:20 AM CST). Forecasts change, so check weather.gov before you launch.